Covid mRNA Vaccine Excess Mortality, Published Papers

The studies listed below are peer reviewed papers on the topic of excess mortality that is linked to the vaccines, not the virus itself. Please check back from time to time as this list is expanded with the release of new papers.

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Papers are listed by date, the most recent appearing at the top of the page. Click to expand for a full text link, author details, correspondence and abstract. Where a paper is published in multiple journals, the link provided is to a full text version. If we have missed important validated research, please log in and use the comment box below to send us a link. Acceptance of submitted links is at the discretion of the editors.

Please note that on occasion, a retracted study will still be listed. This is an editorial decision, based on the reasons for the papers retraction. Clear attempts to discredit research with a view to censorship does not warrant retraction. These papers are highlighted in red and where possible PDF versions exist on our servers.

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Study Details

FULL TEXT LINK: View Paper

PUBLICATION DATE: November, 2025

PUBLICATION: Royal Society Open Science

AUTHORS

Christof Kuhbandner, Matthias Reitzner

CORRESPONDENCE TO

christof.kuhbandner@ur.de

DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250790

PMID: 41234791

ABSTRACT

This study used a rigorous actuarial approach to estimate excess mortality across German federal states during the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regional trends were analysed alongside associations with state-level indicators: reported COVID-19 deaths and infections, policy stringency, vaccination rates, demographic and socioeconomic factors. Average excess mortality was moderate in the first year, with substantial regional variation. It increased slightly in the second year, with stable regional patterns. In the third year, excess mortality rose sharply, regional differences diminished, and the most affected states shifted, indicating the emergence of a new excess mortality driver. In the first two years, excess mortality strongly correlated with COVID-19 deaths, although reported COVID-19 deaths substantially exceeded excess deaths. Despite rising excess mortality, COVID-19 deaths declined over time. In the third year, only vaccination rate and trust in institutions showed notable associations, with the latter fully mediated by vaccination rate. Higher vaccination rates correlated with larger increases in excess mortality and with smaller declines in COVID-19 deaths and case fatality rates, even after adjusting for prior mortality levels and time-invariant confounders. This robust finding underscores the need for urgent investigation into potential unintended effects of vaccination or other previously neglected mortality drivers.

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Study Details

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PUBLICATION DATE: April, 2025

PUBLICATION: JMA Journal

AUTHORS

Hideki Kakeya, Takeshi Nitta, Yukari Kamijima, Takayuki Miyazawa

CORRESPONDENCE TO

kake@iit.tsukuba.ac.jp

DOI: 10.31662/jmaj.2024-0298

PMID: 40416011

ABSTRACT

Although Japan recorded the world’s highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses per capita, COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the emergence of the Omicron variant, followed by a significant increase in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines. The causes of the excess deaths from not only COVID-19 but also other factors after repeated mRNA vaccinations must be elucidated, given this could provide valuable information to help combat future infectious disease outbreaks.

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Study Details

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PUBLICATION DATE: November, 2024

PUBLICATION: Public Health Policy Journal

AUTHORS

Nicolas Hulscher, Paul E. Alexander, Richard Amerling, Heather Gessling, Roger Hodkinson, William Makis, Harvey A. Risch, Mark Trozzi, Peter A. McCullough

CORRESPONDENCE TO

nichulscher@gmail.com

DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2024.112115

PMID: 38221509

ABSTRACT

Background: The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a high number of adverse event reports, have led to concerns over possible mechanisms of injury including systemic lipid nanoparticle (LNP) and mRNA distribution, Spike protein-associated tissue damage, thrombogenicity, immune system dysfunction, and carcinogenicity. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate possible causal links between COVID-19 vaccine administration and death using autopsies and post-mortem analysis. Methods: We searched PubMed and ScienceDirect for all published autopsy and organ-restricted autopsy reports relating to COVID-19 vaccination up until May 18th, 2023. All autopsy and organ-restricted autopsy studies that included COVID-19 vaccination as an antecedent exposure were included. Because the state of knowledge has advanced since the time of the original publications, three physicians independently reviewed each case and adjudicated whether or not COVID-19 vaccination was the direct cause or contributed significantly to death. Results: We initially identified 678 studies and, after screening for our inclusion criteria, included 44 papers that contained 325 autopsy cases and one organ-restricted autopsy case (heart). The mean age of death was 70.4 years. The most implicated organ system among cases was the cardiovascular (49%), followed by hematological (17%), respiratory (11%), and multiple organ systems (7%). Three or more organ systems were affected in 21 cases. The mean time from vaccination to death was 14.3 days. Most deaths occurred within a week from last vaccine administration. A total of 240 deaths (73.9%) were independently adjudicated as directly due to or significantly contributed to by COVID-19 vaccination, of which the primary causes of death include sudden cardiac death (35%), pulmonary embolism (12.5%), myocardial infarction (12%), VITT (7.9%), myocarditis (7.1%), multisystem inflammatory syndrome (4.6%), and cerebral hemorrhage (3.8%). Conclusions: The consistency seen among cases in this review with known COVID-19 vaccine mechanisms of injury and death, coupled with autopsy confirmation by physician adjudication, suggests there is a high likelihood of a causal link between COVID-19 vaccines and death. Further urgent investigation is required for the purpose of clarifying our findings.

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Study Details

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PUBLICATION DATE: May, 2023

PUBLICATION: Cureus

AUTHORS

Christof Kuhbandner and Matthias Reitzner

CORRESPONDENCE TO

christof.kuhbandner@ur.de

DOI: 10.7759/cureus.39371

PMID: 37378220

ABSTRACT

This study estimates the burden of COVID-19 on mortality in Germany. It is expected that many people have died because of the new COVID-19 virus who otherwise would not have died. Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality by the number of officially reported COVID-19-related deaths has been proven to be difficult due to several reasons. Because of this, a better approach, which has been used in many studies, is to estimate the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic by calculating the excess mortality for the pandemic years. An advantage of such an approach is that additional negative impacts of a pandemic on mortality are covered as well, such as a possible pandemic-induced strain on the healthcare system.

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Study Details

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PUBLICATION DATE: June, 2022

PUBLICATION: RePEc

AUTHORS

John Gibson

CORRESPONDENCE TO

jkgibson@waikato.ac.nz

JOURNAL REF: RePEc:wai:econwp:22/11

PMID: Not indexed (Financial)

ABSTRACT

The rollout of booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the general population is controversial. The ratio of vaccine risk to benefits likely has swung more towards risk than during the original randomized trials, due to dose-dependent adverse events and to fixation of immune responses on a variant no longer circulating, yet the evidence underpinning mass use of boosters is weaker than was the evidence for the original vaccine rollout. In light of an unsatisfactory risk-evidence situation, aggregate weekly data on excess mortality in New Zealand are used here to study the impacts of rolling out booster doses. Instrumental variables estimates using a plausible source of exogenous variation in the rate of booster dose rollout indicate 16 excess deaths per 100,000 booster doses, totaling over 400 excess deaths from New Zealand’s booster rollout to date. The value of statistical life of these excess deaths is over $1.6 billion. The age groups most likely to use boosters had 7-10 percentage point rises in excess mortality rates as boosters were rolled out while the age group that is mostly too young for boosters saw no rise in excess mortality.

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